Illegal gambling trends show no sustained growth, says Gambling Commission

The Gambling Commission has reported that consumer engagement with illegal online gambling continues to fluctuate but shows no evidence of sustained growth, according to its latest data update.

The analysis, shared by Tim Livesley, Head of the Data Innovation Hub, follows a session on illegal gambling at the Commission’s Spring Evidence Conference. Representatives from industry, HMRC and the Dutch regulator joined the discussion, which explored emerging trends and the challenges of tracking unlicensed activity online.

Livesley said estimated web‑traffic minutes spent on illegal gambling sites have moved up and down over the past 21 months, with no consistent upward trend. A spike in autumn 2024 was not repeated in 2025, and overall engagement remains variable.

One factor complicating measurement is the sharp rise in VPN usage following the Online Safety Bill. VPNs can obscure traffic to illegal sites, making it harder to quantify activity. The Commission had already applied a 30% uplift to account for hidden traffic, but new data from Ofcom and Similarweb indicates VPN use increased significantly in mid‑2025 before stabilising at higher levels. Updated modelling now reflects these scenarios, widening confidence intervals around the July 2025 spike.

Livesley stressed that illegal gambling is “multi‑dimensional” and cannot be captured by a single dataset. The Commission is expanding its data sources through collaboration with international regulators and licensed operators, alongside insights from the Gambling Survey for Great Britain and the Consumer Voice research programme.

Further updates on research, statistics and enforcement activity are expected later this year.